STADIUM RESEARCH CHECKED:
The Bears advanced Hammond in June and reaffirmed that focus in August. On October 1, Illinois officials confirmed renewed talks with Roger Goodell, Pat Ryan and legislative leaders about keeping the team in Illinois.
[Bears board advances Hammond project · June 5, 2026 ↗][Bears stadium update: Hammond sites and unresolved timing · August 13, 2026 ↗][Illinois governor confirms renewed Bears stadium meeting · October 1, 2026 ↗]AI estimates of the eventual state of the next permanent stadium under the current project. Two competing outcomes; total 100%. Uncalibrated analyst judgments, in five-point increments.
Indiana has the stronger public commitment: the Bears board advanced Hammond and Indiana enacted its stadium-authority legislation. Those are concrete steps beyond exploratory talks.
[Bears board advances Hammond project · June 5, 2026 ↗][Indiana governor: SEA 27 signed February 26, 2026 ↗]The team has described a viable Hammond site. Final site selection and a construction timetable still need firmer evidence, so Indiana’s lead is modest.
[Bears stadium update: Hammond sites and unresolved timing · August 13, 2026 ↗]Illinois still has a credible path: the team owns Arlington Park, and the governor’s October meeting brought the NFL and legislative leaders back into the discussion. A workable Illinois deal could change the direction.
[Bears confirm Arlington Park ownership and competing state frameworks · April 2, 2026 ↗][Illinois governor confirms renewed Bears stadium meeting · October 1, 2026 ↗][Illinois governor on infrastructure, taxes and stadium funding · July 17, 2026 ↗]Whether Illinois can produce an acceptable tax and infrastructure agreement before the Bears make an irreversible Hammond commitment. Public statements do not reveal the full negotiations or financing terms.
Low-confidence, uncalibrated AI analyst judgments in five-point increments. The 60/40 split is conditional on the next new permanent Bears stadium eventually opening in Indiana or Illinois; it is not the chance construction finishes by any date. Indefinite delay, no new stadium, and an unexpected third state are outside this two-state comparison. No private negotiations or final signed development package were available to this review.
INDIANA / ACTIVE
The team found Lost Marsh viable and was still studying Wolf Lake Terminal in its August update. A combined footprint remained possible; the final parcel was not announced.
[Bears stadium update: Hammond sites and unresolved timing · August 13, 2026 ↗]ILLINOIS / ALTERNATIVE
The Bears own the Arlington Park property. Illinois talks remain active, but the reviewed October statement announces a meeting, not an agreed stadium site or funding package.
[Bears confirm Arlington Park ownership and competing state frameworks · April 2, 2026 ↗][Illinois governor confirms renewed Bears stadium meeting · October 1, 2026 ↗]ILLINOIS / CURRENT HOME
The Bears’ current home remains Soldier Field. Current use does not establish it as the chosen location for a replacement stadium.
[Soldier Field: current Bears home ↗]The governor’s official register records SEA 27 as signed on February 26, 2026. Enabling legislation is not a completed stadium agreement.
[Indiana governor: SEA 27 signed February 26, 2026 ↗]Watch for a team announcement choosing Lost Marsh, Wolf Lake Terminal, or a combined site after the remaining studies.
[Bears stadium update: Hammond sites and unresolved timing · August 13, 2026 ↗]The October 1 meeting confirmed discussions. Watch for actual tax, infrastructure and financing terms accepted by the relevant parties.
[Illinois governor confirms renewed Bears stadium meeting · October 1, 2026 ↗][Illinois governor on infrastructure, taxes and stadium funding · July 17, 2026 ↗]The August team update did not set a groundbreaking date. This review found no newer official announcement establishing a construction start or opening date.
[Bears stadium update: Hammond sites and unresolved timing · August 13, 2026 ↗]Indiana governor signs SEA 27, the stadium-authority legislation.
[Indiana governor: SEA 27 signed February 26, 2026 ↗]Bears announce the board’s vote to advance a Hammond development; the exact site remains to be selected.
[Bears board advances Hammond project · June 5, 2026 ↗]Bears reaffirm Hammond focus and describe two potential parcels.
[Bears stadium update: Hammond sites and unresolved timing · August 13, 2026 ↗]Illinois governor confirms a meeting with NFL, ownership and legislative representatives focused on keeping the Bears in Illinois.
[Illinois governor confirms renewed Bears stadium meeting · October 1, 2026 ↗]REPORT ISSUED:
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